If this Black Swan concept is all locked up from the publishing perspective we are going to need something else. Yesterday’s NYT has the Pink Iguana that Darwin missed cataloging when foraging around Galapagos. The Pink Iguana problem could be more important than the terrifying but rare Black Swans. The capacity of a VAR to see a Black Swan is nonexistent or completely feasible depending on which expert you interview. But the underlying assumption that all the Firm’s positions are cataloged by the VAR (or the other risk mgt. methodologies) remains unexamined. This, of course, is the Pink Iguana problem. “Could someone show Mr Darwin how the loans work in the VAR? You know the Corporate Loans! What do you mean the Beagle is gone?” Ubiquitous Pink Iguanas generally ignored, but would sometimes eat, the occasional Black Swan.
Anyway, here’s a first draft of f2bdfs brief history that should appear in Chapter 2: